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Post by Belfast on Feb 1, 2024 21:22:31 GMT -7
With the demise of "mutant" goalie cards, I want to suggest we make the goalie starts for playoff rounds similar to the other skaters. No random rolls, no stacks, just play the guy that got you there, or the platoon, however you choose each game.
Regular Season Starts Playoff Starts
10-19 2
20-29 3
30-39 4
40-49 5
50-59 6
60+ 7
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Post by Chelsea on Apr 21, 2024 8:32:30 GMT -7
The 2 best goalies the coming year have 16 and 22 NHL starts. Why should these backups get automatic starts in the first 2 or 3 games of a 7 game series?
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Post by nash on Apr 21, 2024 9:44:42 GMT -7
Thanks for noting this Barry. It sounds like we still have mutant goalies, but I do have a question.
What makes this better than the stack? Since I get the impression there is an appetite to change the system, I would like us to change to something better than the stack, rather than a change for change's sake.
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Post by Belfast on Apr 21, 2024 11:41:23 GMT -7
The 2 best goalies the coming year have 16 and 22 NHL starts. Why should these backups get automatic starts in the first 2 or 3 games of a 7 game series? Because they aren't mutants. Remember Steve has weighted SV's to # of games played to fix this. They won't be significantly better than the 50-60 game playing guys who are 55% save already. There are....no...mutant goalie cards anymore. |
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Post by Belfast on Apr 21, 2024 11:42:33 GMT -7
Thanks for noting this Barry. It sounds like we still have mutant goalies, but I do have a question. What makes this better than the stack? Since I get the impression there is an appetite to change the system, I would like us to change to something better than the stack, rather than a change for change's sake. It's better because it's simpler and it doesn't allow for guys to get fucked over by having to play a sub par goalie if they have a tandem that can play all the games already. |
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Post by Oxford United on Apr 21, 2024 12:41:03 GMT -7
Just for reference I'm going to lay out my goalie situation under the current and suggested rules. Under the current rule, I'd have a stack based on three goalies. - Brossoit (HSV% 56): 11 Starts = 2 Playoff Appearances
- Montembault (HSV% 55): 39 Starts = 4 Playoff Appearances
- Jarry (HSV% 49): 45 Starts = 5 Playoff Appearances
So my stack would look like this: | 1 | Brossoit | | 2 | Brossoit | | 3 | Montembault | | 4 | Montembault | | 5 | Montembault | | 6 | Montembault | | 7 | Jarry | | 8 | Jarry |
I have a ~79% chance of having to use Jarry at least once in the first 4 games. Using the proposed rule, I would play Brossoit for games 1-2, Montembault for games 3-6, and Jarry for game 7. The difference is that by stacking my best goalies up front, I ensure much lower (1/7) chance of having to play Jarry. What this seems to come down to is whether we want goalie HSV% to be the sole decider of goalie appearances, or whether some other mechanic (such as the stack) is applied to "randomize" the process. I'm not sure where I fall here. I like the stack - it was a good solution to the real problems of playing the best HSV% goalies in the earliest games and limiting the chance that mutant goalies appear in playoff games. I believe I've reduced the likelyhood of a mutant, but the math remains the same: without a goalie stack, every series' game 1 will feature best goalie vs best goalie, and every game 7 worst vs worst. I might apply to the proposed rule (if adopted for 2024-25) the stipulation that if a goalie is injured in a game he cannot start the next game, which ensures the need for a decent backup at all times. Ramblings of a rambling rambler. |
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Post by Oxford United on Apr 21, 2024 13:26:41 GMT -7
The 2 best goalies the coming year have 16 and 22 NHL starts. Why should these backups get automatic starts in the first 2 or 3 games of a 7 game series? In my draft ratings, the first goalie with fewer than 40 starts is ranked 13 of 71. Game starts factors into goalie ratings because of the difficulty of sustained performance (and to prevent mutations). This in no way denies that the goalies with the highest ratings get the early starts, only that starters have an advantage when it comes to earning the ratings. Oh, and I'm not sure that it's giving much away to say that two Calgary goaltenders rank 70 and 71. |
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Post by Belfast on Apr 21, 2024 13:49:55 GMT -7
If your theory holds, then best vs best "should" always be game 1, so that is equal, there's no advantage to either team. We SHOULD be wanting best vs best. Everyone has the same availability to draft/trade for and play the best line up that they can.
Just looking at what a single team in the league would look like for their stack isn't really fair. You'd have to look at everyone's and see who/if anyone has a large variance that could "swing" a series.
My stack would look very different than yours.
1 Hellebuyck
2 Hellebuyck
3 Hellebuyck
4 Hellebuyck
5 Hellebuyck
6 Hellebuyck
7 Hellebuyck
8 Kuemper
And we can't forget Mike's downfall last year. Forced to play his worst goalie in 2 of those games cost him. I'd much rather see us able to play our best guys as we se fit rather than have a randomized goalie absolutely derail your playoff hopes like that. How is THAT "Fair" to the coach?
We dont randomize any other star players or mutants, goalies should be no different. Especially because, what we're essentially arguing is, about 1-3% of HSS.
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Post by nash on Apr 21, 2024 18:51:21 GMT -7
Just a reminder. If we are going to move away from the stack, I want all parties who have proposals to come together and decide on a single system that will be voted on. We're not going to vote on goalie appearances every year until one passes.
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Post by nash on Apr 22, 2024 8:04:59 GMT -7
The 2 best goalies the coming year have 16 and 22 NHL starts. Why should these backups get automatic starts in the first 2 or 3 games of a 7 game series? In my draft ratings, the first goalie with fewer than 40 starts is ranked 13 of 71. Game starts factors into goalie ratings because of the difficulty of sustained performance (and to prevent mutations). This in no way denies that the goalies with the highest ratings get the early starts, only that starters have an advantage when it comes to earning the ratings. Oh, and I'm not sure that it's giving much away to say that two Calgary goaltenders rank 70 and 71. If Steve is making this change it may not make sense to change the Goalie appearances until we see what it looks like. Change + Change makes Change harder to evaluate. |
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Post by Oxford United on Apr 22, 2024 9:32:47 GMT -7
In my draft ratings, the first goalie with fewer than 40 starts is ranked 13 of 71. Game starts factors into goalie ratings because of the difficulty of sustained performance (and to prevent mutations). …starters have an advantage when it comes to earning the ratings. If Steve is making this change it may not make sense to change the Goalie appearances until we see what it looks like. Change + Change makes Change harder to evaluate. This is not a change. This came into effect last season. |
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Post by Chelsea on Apr 22, 2024 12:19:05 GMT -7
Hi
I proposed what I thought was a good solution to the stack issue last year. That being the amount of games a goalie can play is not determined by a discrete roll but by the range of the roll.
eg. 1-6 goalie x
7-8 goalie y
This means any roll of 1-6 lets goalie x play until he has played his maximum games so you don't end up in a game 5 situation where each has a 50-50 chance and a game 6 where it is 33-66.
Alternately I just came up with this using Daniel's games allowed chart from above.
Regular Season Starts Playoff Starts
10-19 2
20-29 3
30-39 4
40-49 5
50-59 6
60+ 7
2 games - 1 in first 4, 1 in next 3 - shows that goalie is a backup and used to take pressure off main guy
3 games- 1 in first 3, 1 in next 2, 1 in last 2 - still a back up, but used a bit more
4 games - 2 in first 3, then coaches choice - platoon guy with equal chance of playing
No need to go further as goalie is obviously a starter and can play whenever he wants.
This would mean Steve could play B,M,M.M,B,M then be stuck with Jarry in game 7 which doesn't seem unreasonable and a guy with a 64% 2 gamer and a 53% 5 or 6 gamer could play the big guy games 1 and 5.
The 2 games could be amended to 1 in 5 then 1 in 2 for a game 1 and game 6 opportunity to the big guy, or if we think one is too good and the other too bad we could say 18 or 19 games 1 game in 1st 4, 17 or less 1 game in 1st 5.
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Post by Belfast on Apr 22, 2024 12:23:24 GMT -7
Can someone just answer one question for me. Why, do we want to randomize goalie starts but not any other position?
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Post by nash on Apr 22, 2024 14:01:03 GMT -7
Can someone just answer one question for me. Why, do we want to randomize goalie starts but not any other position? See Steve's post above for why we randomize goalie starts. If you'd like I'm fine rolling in players like we used to. Everyone rolls in. |
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Post by Oxford United on Apr 22, 2024 16:54:36 GMT -7
I am partial to (1) determine the number of playoff starts per goalie as per the chart, then (2) start any goalie you want, but (3) if the goalie is injured he may not dress the next game.
I call it Goalie 1-2-3.
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