Post by alphalackey on Oct 26, 2023 1:43:36 GMT -7
So as you know, the NHL has rules where a team can challenge a goal for offsides, or a penalty, or whatnot.
Here's the thing:
If the challenge succeeds, it takes 1.0 goals off the board.
If the challenge fails, you have a power play against, which is worth an average of 0.2 goals against
1.0 : 0.2 is of course 5:1, which means that it's incredibly correct to challenge if you have a minimum 17% chance to be right.
but going through current history, the league average "win percent" on challenges is about 70%, with no team being below 50%
Obviously, this is a case of a rule where coaches are just too fucking stupid to do basic math.
Which is my dilemma when proposing such a goal challenge rule to this league.
If we included such a rule, that would mimic league averages, even Daniel would be able to do the math and get it right. And then it would be one of those "yeah it's real life accurate but every coach just always does it at the first opportunity" math exercises. And to my understanding, we really don't want to turn our league into a math exercise, irrespective of the real world underlying reality.
So I guess that's my question -- do we even WANT to consider adding a "real world accurate" coaches challenge for a goal -- take a goal off the board if you're right, get a PK if you're wrong, give it a real world 50% chance of success -- in our league?
Do we want to do the same but give in the actual breakeven chance of 1-in-6?
Here's the thing:
If the challenge succeeds, it takes 1.0 goals off the board.
If the challenge fails, you have a power play against, which is worth an average of 0.2 goals against
1.0 : 0.2 is of course 5:1, which means that it's incredibly correct to challenge if you have a minimum 17% chance to be right.
but going through current history, the league average "win percent" on challenges is about 70%, with no team being below 50%
Obviously, this is a case of a rule where coaches are just too fucking stupid to do basic math.
Which is my dilemma when proposing such a goal challenge rule to this league.
If we included such a rule, that would mimic league averages, even Daniel would be able to do the math and get it right. And then it would be one of those "yeah it's real life accurate but every coach just always does it at the first opportunity" math exercises. And to my understanding, we really don't want to turn our league into a math exercise, irrespective of the real world underlying reality.
So I guess that's my question -- do we even WANT to consider adding a "real world accurate" coaches challenge for a goal -- take a goal off the board if you're right, get a PK if you're wrong, give it a real world 50% chance of success -- in our league?
Do we want to do the same but give in the actual breakeven chance of 1-in-6?
but yeah, it's like, if we add it as a rule, it's just going to be something done by rote at every opportunity or something that's never going to be done at all. A bit like how checking game / power o settings never were used as the "situational game coaching changes" as intended but simply min/max auto-standards.