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Post by QC Mike on Apr 12, 2020 20:03:55 GMT -7
Let the discourse begin!
Would like to see this work kind of like the old Wolvering boards did. use this thread for overall ratings /mechanics questions and questions about individual players or team ratings appear in that specific thread.
Thanks for all this Steve. Like the fact that not all of the defenders have equal defense/clearing so they have some individual character. Are there still some stats to be determined (ex PP)?
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Post by Daniel on Apr 13, 2020 0:23:52 GMT -7
Wouldnt a forward on the PP use his PP range on a rebound, pass, +pass or FC?
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Post by QC Mike on Apr 13, 2020 10:22:26 GMT -7
Good question. The PP rating is gone. Forwards on the point on the PP is pretty common now, so it’s hard to say who’s a specialist any more. So now a forward’s D-range is half his N-range. A forward on the point on the PP still gets to use his N-range if the shot is the result of a Pass, Rebound, +Pass or Forechecking. Agree that anyone could play it but I would have thought PPTOI in comparison to his team mates would be a pretty good indicator for who would be a power play specialist. Does that give them a higher floor on D ranges or something else (+1 passing when on PP, +1 to numbers, ...)? Does it vary based on their PP contributions? That can be discussed but would like to see more recognition to players who are PP specialists (maybe it helps normalize their cards). |
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Post by QC Mike on Apr 14, 2020 11:29:27 GMT -7
For marginal players where you're looking to fill the gaps, do you use something like THRU% (percentage of shot attempts on goal) as a means of bounding the fill on cards? Someone with a low THRU% (like 30) would have a lot of low numbers with the expectation of them not getting through and turning into interceptions whereas someone with a high THRU% (say 75) would have big numbers with the expectations of them getting through and then more other codes (probably stoppages - where's that A faceoff dude?).
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Post by QC Mike on Apr 15, 2020 8:39:50 GMT -7
Have been seeing some 1s on clearing but no 1s on defense for defenders or 0s for forwards. Have we not gotten to them yet or did I just miss them?
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Post by QC Mike on Apr 15, 2020 9:10:32 GMT -7
Pulling into the overall rating discussion from a different thread. Following does not refer to any specific player (although one is mentioned) and is more on underlying assumptions behind determining defence ratings. I would have thought point #2 would work against a player if you're trying to take team (system) bias out of the equation as it would make it harder for him to "stand out" from the crowd.
For defensemen, are the 5s and 1s being awarded to those players whose stats are the most statistically deviant from their team's norms relative to the rest of the league or something else? I think someone on the worst team in the league who's 2.6 standard deviations above their team's norm in shot suppression statistically is a more impressive defender than someone who's 1.1 deviations above on the best shot suppressing team in the league (like those numbers will ever happen). Is that enough to be a 5? Being a "good" defender on a team of shiite does not make you great (although it also doesn't mean you aren't great on a bad team). Not sure where to draw the line. Is there a sliding scale or matrix?
Not sure and one of the reasons I would have loved to have gotten a round table together to discuss these kinds of things over beverages. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2020 13:46:54 GMT -7
It looks like everyones first lines are all 1's again. All the top minute eating guys are heavily 1's with a smattering of 2's. Columbus, Carolina, marginally Arizona are the only teams I see as deviating much from that.
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Post by QC Mike on Apr 17, 2020 15:16:12 GMT -7
Combo cards - Assuming it's pretty much a proportional average based on their ice time with each team but are the team's statistics they're compared against the year's totals or stats for the games the player was in?
Ex. If a player was on a bubble team for 50 games that then "sold" and played crap hockey for the last 30 [tanking the team's stats for 80] are his ratios compared to those at the 50 mark or those for the end of the season? The relative stats will show how the player did versus their teammates but not necessarily how the team was doing versus the league at that point and could swing the numbers either way.
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Post by QC Mike on Apr 17, 2020 19:32:22 GMT -7
Combo cards - Assuming it's pretty much a proportional average based on their ice time with each team but are the team's statistics they're compared against the year's totals or stats for the games the player was in? Ex. If a player was on a bubble team for 50 games that then "sold" and played crap hockey for the last 30 [tanking the team's stats for 80] are his ratios compared to those at the 50 mark or those for the end of the season? The relative stats will show how the player did versus their teammates but not necessarily how the team was doing versus the league at that point and could swing the numbers either way. Combo scores are [[ 50 * good hockey ] + [30 * bad hockey ]] / games played. That score is compared against all skater scores for each rating.
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Think you misunderstood.
Joe plays for Team A for 50 games. For those 50 games, Team A is a middle of the road possession team with poor puck luck and finds itself on the outside looking in so sells everything and goes for the tank. Its last 30 games it totally sucks and is a bottom feeder in all useful stats but Joe was traded to Team B where his stats, and the team stats mirror his first 50 games with Team A.
When doing the 50 games portion with Team A, does Team A for the "team/league" part of the rating use their stats for those 50 games when they were middle of the road or their stats for the 80 game season where because of the last 30 (where Joe was no longer with the team) they're a below average team stat wise
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Post by Barnyard on Apr 21, 2020 15:44:40 GMT -7
3/3 I Mike Green I like it
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Post by QC Mike on May 10, 2020 14:49:37 GMT -7
Have a few questions to try and get a better idea of base assumptions: - Is quality of opposition considered?
- Are defensive zone faceoffs due to icings (no change allowed) differentiated from others? If our line sucks and can't get off the ice, 20 icings in three minutes is preferable to a goal against or a penalty but may not give an idea of how the coach would actually like to deploy the players
- If question 1 is yes, what is the effect for a shut down D of being put on the ice for an offensive zone faceoff because the opponent's #1 line (Boston for example) is on the ice?
- Does anyone track shots/penalties at home versus on the road? Realize it's not normally a thing but if it's tracked and there are players who are significantly more likely to do one on the home/road that should be reflected in the cards since they are meant to be stat based (XV, H8, ...).
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