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Post by Shamrockville on Mar 19, 2024 14:21:58 GMT -7
So I've been doing a stats comp. for my pro rated stats for next year vs the stats from this year.
Next year is going to be a tough slog for sure.
I'll be down a combined 115 goals.
McDavid will be down 31, Tavares down 10, Burns down 8, Robertson down 20, Tkachuk down 15, Danault will be close but down 5, Wilson down 10 and some other plug in guys down 10 to 15 or so.
I only have one guy projected to be up in goals and that's Palmieri who may be up 5.
Combine that with guys that only score on the PP, who are much less valuable, and I'm going to struggle to score I think.
At least I'll have Hellebuyck....
How is everyone else doing?
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Post by Oxford United on Mar 19, 2024 15:03:10 GMT -7
I'm going to have to stew on "guys that only score on the PP ... are much less valuable" for a little while.
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Post by brandonmoose on Mar 19, 2024 15:35:22 GMT -7
Shamrockville 312 Bonavista 298 Brandon 286 Brooks 373 Chelsea 281 Cole Harbour 253 Cremona 347 Houston 214 Oxford 314 Quad City 319 Revelstoke 243 Viking 273
Current goal totals in the NHL for each team if my sheet is half ass accurate
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Post by nash on Mar 19, 2024 15:46:06 GMT -7
I'm going to judge my top 9 forwards and top 4 defensemen.
FWDs This year prorate to 342. D this year prorate to 62.
Most of these guys have played almost full seasons except for Eichel and Hughes.
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Post by Oxford United on Mar 19, 2024 16:03:20 GMT -7
I'm going to judge my top 9 forwards and top 4 defensemen. FWDs This year prorate to 342. D this year prorate to 62. Most of these guys have played almost full seasons except for Eichel and Hughes. Prorated to 82 Games Top 9 Forwards: 246 Top 4 Defence: 40
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Post by amack17 on Mar 19, 2024 17:46:02 GMT -7
Shamrockville 312 Bonavista 298 Brandon 286 Brooks 373 Chelsea 281 Cole Harbour 253 Cremona 347 Houston 214 Oxford 314 Quad City 319 Revelstoke 243 Viking 273 Current goal totals in the NHL for each team if my sheet is half ass accurate Hey, I am not in last anymore!
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Post by Shamrockville on Mar 19, 2024 18:42:39 GMT -7
I'm going to have to stew on "guys that only score on the PP ... are much less valuable" for a little while. Sorry Steve, I didn't mean for that to come across as a slight. I know it's reflects their contributions, and this year perhaps there were a few too many coincidental penalties so take that with a grain of salt. The thought process, which we all know I'm not particularly good at, is that case in point a Valeri Nichushkin style player. He's going to be a 10 or 11 shifting guy that should be a top 4 winger. But playing a guy with a 1-9 regular range and a 3-10 PP range (He'll have over 50% of his goals on the PP), is difficult. He might only get one PP opportunity in a game while 8-9 of his shifts are at regular range. Then he has to get the puck on the PP, get a shot and hit a range that the goalie then lets in. So 1 in 9 chance he gets the puck, slightly higher with passing, PP pass protection etc, so say he gets it 1 in 5, or once on that particular PP (5 tick sequence). He then has to hit a shot, not difficult on the PP so say 75% he'll either shoot....or Pass. Then he has a 50-50 chance at hitting a hard shot, then a 50-50 chance for the goalie to let it in. I just have a hard time thinking he'll replicate his 50% goals on the PP. That'd be I suppose that's only 5 NNHL PP Goals to equate to his 26 or so NHL PP Goals. But then you have to contend with his 9 shifts at the regular 1-9 range. Can he get another 5 ES NNHL goals on that same situation of 8-9 ES shifts. I guess its' not as far out as I might have been thinking. Basically I guess it just comes down to that "feel" test again where you have a 47 goal guy with what "looks" like a mediocre card because he scored 50% of his goals on the PP. I mean I get it, at 5v5 he's basically a 20-22 goal guy, on a 10 shifting card, can't argue that, so he should get 5 goals in an NNHL season at 5v5. That doesnt "seem" like a lot of production for a 40-45 goal NHL player, though it IS accurate for the math. I, personally, would rather play a guy that's 10 shifts who scores 30 of his 46 goals at 5v5, but NHL wise he's almost a lock to score on the PP so it's extremely valuable to an NHL team. Maybe its' just because I dont feel like PP guys get enough chances with only 5 ticks to try and do something. One turnover burns 2 of the 5 opportunities to generate offense and then the 50-50 against a goalie, who may very well give it back to his own team, further decreasing the number of opportunities that the PP team has means very few PP opportunities.
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Post by Shamrockville on Mar 19, 2024 18:44:53 GMT -7
My top 9 Forwards would be 257 My top 4 D would be 37
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Post by revelstoke on Mar 19, 2024 18:58:25 GMT -7
You know your team is terrible when your entire team is being outscored by most teams' top 9 forwards.
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Post by alphalackey on Mar 19, 2024 20:42:44 GMT -7
Shamrockville 312 Bonavista 298 Brandon 286 Brooks 373 Chelsea 281 Cole Harbour 253 Cremona 347 Houston 214 Oxford 314 Quad City 319 Revelstoke 243 Viking 273 Current goal totals in the NHL for each team if my sheet is half ass accurate 214! That's a big yikes dawg >.<
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Post by bonavista on Mar 19, 2024 21:13:06 GMT -7
looking like 227 for top 9 forwards 28 for top 4(5) defense (with Theodore/Hamilton splitting season)
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Post by QC Mike on Mar 19, 2024 22:06:00 GMT -7
Looks like a 268 for me (214F+54D) although I have a number of players around the same level so my third line may change depending upon what toys Santa Steve gives to the Quarrymen. Also didn't include players who aren't going to play at least 50 games who look to pro-rate better (Pinto, Dorofeyev).
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Post by brandonmoose on Mar 26, 2024 13:23:13 GMT -7
Brandon top 9 212 Top 4 41
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Post by nash on Mar 27, 2024 8:03:36 GMT -7
I think we all need to remember that goals =/= wins. I like that in our game you can't go all offence (as I have) and guarantee yourself championships. I need to make my team more like Daniel's and Steve's to have a good chance of winning going forward.
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Adam (Moose Jaw)
Power User
Da competition is gonna sleep wit da fishes
Posts: 145
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Post by Adam (Moose Jaw) on Mar 27, 2024 8:53:49 GMT -7
I finally have a 20 goal scorer! And it's... Jason Dickinson?! Not who I would have put money on to start the season.
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