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Post by Oxford United on Mar 13, 2024 9:07:33 GMT -7
I have a concern about this season's Goals/Game compared to previous seasons. My goal when creating matrixes is to have average players on average teams produce 33 shots and 3.3 goals average per game. The math is constructed to support this backbone. And for the most part it's been good. Here are the CHL league-wide goal scoring averages for every season since the Strat-o-Matic season. Until THIS season. | YEAR | G/G | | 2017 | 3.35 | | 2018 | 3.29 | | 2019 | 3.32 | | 2020 | 2.96 | | 2021 | 3.49 | | 2022 | 3.24 | | 2023 | 4.11 |
And this is before Belfast's 19-goal outburst against Bonavista. So my question for you is "What do you think is the cause of this jump in goals?" Now I know what you might be thinking. "Hey, Steve," you'd say, "why don't you tell US why this is happening? They're YOUR cards, after all. It's YOUR math." And to that I say ... true. But what is your IMPRESSION of why scoring is up so much. Equally talented skaters. The NHL's scoring dropped from 3.18 to 3.11 year-over-year. Why are we scoring our faces off this season? Active tanking? Poor coaching? Cards too advantageous? Ranges too high? What do YOU think? I want the truth! I can handle the truth! Thanks in advance for any thoughts, creative ideas, and diatribes. |
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VFS Adam
Power User
Truculence is an art
Posts: 123
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Post by VFS Adam on Mar 13, 2024 9:47:23 GMT -7
Could it be due to us spending more time 4v4? The bonuses to shooting and decreased defenses would mean more shots/hard shots/goals.
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Post by Oxford United on Mar 13, 2024 11:49:02 GMT -7
Could it be due to us spending more time 4v4? The bonuses to shooting and decreased defenses would mean more shots/hard shots/goals. Good observation. I believe I can count this as a factor even though my relationship with 4v4 has been strained. |
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Post by nash on Mar 13, 2024 12:21:39 GMT -7
Is this because of the penalty matrices?
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Post by Oxford United on Mar 13, 2024 13:50:49 GMT -7
Is this because of the penalty matrices? Maybe. I’m sure it is at least partially responsible. |
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Post by QC Mike on Mar 13, 2024 14:03:02 GMT -7
In his 5 games Korpisalo let in 7 more goals then he statistically should have while Georgiev is only one below. There is going to be a disconnect between your math covering the NHL as whole and our league. The CHL draft tries to filter out the dross, and then what we play which further filters out under-performance within our squads. What happens to your numbers if you only run it with the best 20% of the NHL against the averages (given the matrices can be significantly more skewed than things like defense).
Fore-checking shots only to forwards?
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Post by bonavista on Mar 13, 2024 22:18:46 GMT -7
I think Mike alluded to it. Goaltending seems down this year to me. My own goalies are playing worse than expected.
Desmith at 52.8 is instead at 44.4 and Markstrom at 48.6 is instead at 43.5
it also doesn't seem to be just my goalies. Other than Daniels goalies playing a bit above average against me before that game in the 10 i had played already the opposing goalie hard save percentage was at just over 41%
Unless you changed the goalie makeups this year i think we are just statistically hitting the low end of the numbers for goalies right now.
Also i think we have a couple of real super teams this year. I dont think in the last few years we had such super strong teams that Nash and Daniel are running right now. i wonder if you take out their numbers and look at it as a 9 team performance how off the numbers would look?
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Post by Al on Mar 13, 2024 22:33:10 GMT -7
Sergei Bobrovsky. He sucks.
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Post by Belfast on Mar 13, 2024 22:55:44 GMT -7
Except for Oxford's mutant goalie tandem, the goaltending has been particularly bad this year. Mine not so much, but Hellebuyck is a 60.6% HS save so I expect him to be at least that. There are some truly atrocious goalies this year and combine that with some of the better goalies also getting a bad streak, I think most of this boils down to them.
Some of it may be team defense vs our stronger than NHL teams as well. The defensemen seem to me to be a tad lackluster, aside from the 2 or 3 juggernaut teams so I think maybe we're seeing a slightly above average number of shots maybe.
I dont think the cards are wrong, I think it's the "small sample size" case on a per game basis. But I'm not a maths guy so I dont know what the odds are that we'd have a season where some of this just dogpiles on top of each other to create an anomaly.
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Post by nash on Mar 14, 2024 7:06:23 GMT -7
Except for Oxford's mutant goalie tandem, the goaltending has been particularly bad this year. Mine not so much, but Hellebuyck is a 60.6% HS save so I expect him to be at least that. There are some truly atrocious goalies this year and combine that with some of the better goalies also getting a bad streak, I think most of this boils down to them. Some of it may be team defense vs our stronger than NHL teams as well. The defensemen seem to me to be a tad lackluster, aside from the 2 or 3 juggernaut teams so I think maybe we're seeing a slightly above average number of shots maybe. I dont think the cards are wrong, I think it's the "small sample size" case on a per game basis. But I'm not a maths guy so I dont know what the odds are that we'd have a season where some of this just dogpiles on top of each other to create an anomaly. I'm not sure that goaltending has been bad. I only have the context of my games, but my opponents goalies have only allowed 59 goals on 155 hard shots against me. That's 38% goal success. I suppose we'd have to get more stats league-wide to really judge that. |
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Post by amack17 on Mar 14, 2024 9:25:14 GMT -7
My goaltending has been abysmal this year and definitely contributes to the increased scoring, here are my totals through 20 games:
Shots against 884
IR Shots 187
Goals 117
Save % 0.867647059
IR Save % 0.374331551
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Post by Oxford United on Mar 14, 2024 20:43:45 GMT -7
My goaltending has been abysmal this year and definitely contributes to the increased scoring, here are my totals through 20 games: Shots against 884 IR Shots 187 Goals 117 Save % 0.867647059 IR Save % 0.374331551 A comparison, for shits and giggles, as we've both played 20 games. | Team | CHB | OXU | | Shots Against | 884 | 709 | | Hard Shots | 187 (21%) | 157 (22%) | | Goals Against | 117 | 60 | | Save % | 86.8% | 91.5% | | Hard Shot % | 37.4% | 61.8% |
Together we have a 48.5% Hard Shot Save %. We almost balance out to the intended league average. My goalies are playing well. I'm trying to keep the league average down (GAA 2.99), but a run of luck like this is sure to swing back and nut me in the first round of the playoffs. | Goalie | GP | xHSV% | HSV% | | Jarry | 7 | 49.1 | 52.8 | | Montembeault | 10 | 55.1 | 64.8 | | Brossoit | 3 | 56.0 | 69.7 |
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Post by Belfast on Mar 16, 2024 13:43:42 GMT -7
"Coupons save more than your goalies"...classic.
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Post by brandonmoose on Mar 16, 2024 20:52:11 GMT -7
Does the shot generation work out? have you tried breaking down shots per game per player to see if we are generating about the right amount of shots. Maybe we moved the average Defense stats a little to far and now players are shooting above there averages. just pure shots on goal. also we have a large discrepency in the teams this year the top teams may just be hitting expected number of shots with the players they have.
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