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Post by nash on Apr 22, 2024 18:14:18 GMT -7
I am partial to (1) determine the number of playoff starts per goalie as per the chart, then (2) start any goalie you want, but (3) if the goalie is injured he may not dress the next game. I call it Goalie 1-2-3. I'm not sure it's worthwhile even worrying about goalie injuries. That's 1 in 324 of it happening, so around 1 in 10 games? Sounds like 1-2 which is the same as what Daniel is supporting.
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Adam (Moose Jaw)
Power User
Da competition is gonna sleep wit da fishes
Posts: 145
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Post by Adam (Moose Jaw) on Apr 22, 2024 18:15:48 GMT -7
That was the 1-2-3 Kid's brother, right?
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Post by Oxford United on Apr 22, 2024 18:48:28 GMT -7
I am partial to (1) determine the number of playoff starts per goalie as per the chart, then (2) start any goalie you want, but (3) if the goalie is injured he may not dress the next game. I call it Goalie 1-2-3. I'm not sure it's worthwhile even worrying about goalie injuries. That's 1 in 324 of it happening, so around 1 in 10 games? Sounds like 1-2 which is the same as what Daniel is supporting. There is a 9.7% chance of at least one goalie injury to your team when facing 33 shots in a single game. Or a 51% chance of at least one injury to a goalie in a seven game series. Make of that what you will, but the more shots you face, the more likely the injury.
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Post by nash on Apr 22, 2024 19:45:04 GMT -7
I'm not sure it's worthwhile even worrying about goalie injuries. That's 1 in 324 of it happening, so around 1 in 10 games? Sounds like 1-2 which is the same as what Daniel is supporting. There is a 9.7% chance of at least one goalie injury to your team when facing 33 shots in a single game. Or a 51% chance of at least one injury to a goalie in a seven game series. Make of that what you will, but the more shots you face, the more likely the injury. Is there another way for a goalie to get injured than on the 6-11 F?2 ? My math has long been suspect so maybe you can explain to me.
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Post by Oxford United on Apr 22, 2024 20:05:45 GMT -7
There is a 9.7% chance of at least one goalie injury to your team when facing 33 shots in a single game. Or a 51% chance of at least one injury to a goalie in a seven game series. Make of that what you will, but the more shots you face, the more likely the injury. Is there another way for a goalie to get injured than on the 6-11 F?2 ? My math has long been suspect so maybe you can explain to me. The odds of at least one thing happening are 1-(the odds of it not happening) repetitionsThe odds of a single save being an injury is 0.003086, or 1/324. The odds of a single save not being an injruy is 0.996914. The average number of shots faced is 33, so 33 repetitions. 1 - (1/324) 33 = 1 - (0.996914) 33 = 1 - 0.903021 = 0.096979 = 9.7% For one team, the odds of at least one goalie injury occuring when facing 33 shots is 9.7%. Between both teams, the odds of at least one goalie injury occuring when combined facing 66 shots is 18.5%. Now you know what you didn't know.
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Post by Chelsea on Apr 22, 2024 23:40:03 GMT -7
The injury idea will have no impact on the issue as we only need to look at the first 4 games of a series and the impact of +60% low game goalies on the outcome. Starting your 2 game goalie in game 1 and 2 or 1 and 3 if he was injured in game 1 makes no difference.
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Post by amack17 on Apr 23, 2024 16:09:43 GMT -7
Okay, but if I have a guy who scored 25 goals in 40 games, I get to decide when he plays. Same if I have a 5/5 D that only plays half a season. Why is it okay for me to choose one but not the other? All players should be treated equally.
I personally hate the idea of rolling any players in, mostly because of the time it takes to do so and the delay in getting the games rolling, especially in a 7 game series. Could easily add another 20 to 30 minutes per game between the rolls and having to adjust your line up to balance FC, plus passing Face-off A, etc.
I think any change we make needs to push all players into the same category of rules, and should also consider the ease of setting lineups.
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Post by Shamrockville on Apr 23, 2024 17:51:20 GMT -7
Yeah I dont understand the fixation on goalies here. Barry keeps bringing up issues that aren't relevant since they dont happen anymore. Yes, when a 15 game .950 mutant was a valid strategy before, they could be an issue for a couple games. That is NOT a problem we face anymore. Let's just let our best guys play the amount of games they are available for. It's the same for every team, there's no rolling and re-rolling and then fixing lineups. Isn't the goal for us to be playing everyone's best lineup and letting the best coaches decide the fate of their teams?
Steve's done yeoman's work on getting the cars to a point where they A. Represent actual statistical models for the NHL players, and B. Has mitigated those "Mousseau Rule Bending" wonky mutant cards.
I dont see the need for a stack system, nor do I see a need to have some new injury rule to take players out of games in a series. I think this is just looking to fix an issue that doesn't exist.
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Post by nash on Apr 24, 2024 7:40:05 GMT -7
Pretty easy resolution to this. We vote one last time. Hopefully everyone can get together and back a single alternative to the stack and if enough folks want a change, we'll change.
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Post by Oxford United on Apr 24, 2024 9:26:44 GMT -7
Pretty easy resolution to this. We vote one last time. Hopefully everyone can get together and back a single alternative to the stack and if enough folks want a change, we'll change. The most important thing to know before proposing a change to goalie appearances is that after the goalies have been scored by HSV% they are readjusted by Quality of Starts. This has the effect of lowering the HSV% for goalies whose NHL starts were against lower-quality opponents - typically backup goalies. It is impossible for a 20-start goalie to get the top HSV%. At best he’d be 5 percentage points behind. In the draft ratings so far, the first 12 goalies are all starters, and the first 20-something-start goalie appears at 13, 5% behind the top goalie. Mutant goalies are dead.
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Post by Shamrockville on Apr 24, 2024 13:09:20 GMT -7
Right, so my proposal is right at the start of the thread. Post that up vs the standard Goalie stack and we can decide it.
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Post by nash on Apr 24, 2024 13:22:05 GMT -7
Right, so my proposal is right at the start of the thread. Post that up vs the standard Goalie stack and we can decide it. Is your proposal the best one Daniel?
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Post by alphalackey on Apr 24, 2024 14:12:37 GMT -7
Can someone just answer one question for me. Why, do we want to randomize goalie starts but not any other position? We should randomize every other position as well.
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Post by nash on Apr 24, 2024 16:36:17 GMT -7
So I've decided that we'll never get everyone to agree on a challenger to the stack so we're going to do one pre-vote of any number of options. If any one of those rule options receives a majority of the votes cast we'll put that one up against the stack. Otherwise, no vote against the stack.
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Post by Shamrockville on Apr 24, 2024 21:10:51 GMT -7
Right, so my proposal is right at the start of the thread. Post that up vs the standard Goalie stack and we can decide it. Is your proposal the best one Daniel? It's not about if its "best". It's just a proposal against the stack system. I dont see anyone else posting an actual proposal against it so maybe most members are in favor of a stack *shrug*. If someone wants to put forth another proposal, I'm fine voting. I just don't see a need for the stack any more and I, personally, want the ability to choose when I play what goalie rather than rolling them in is all. And this isn't from a "Oh Daniel just wants to game this years playoffs." I really have no huge vested interest since my two goalies over complete a stack and they are both exceptionally good HSS% I "might" have to play Kuemper one game, but I want to decide when that game is played.
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